Research
Over 40 Million UI Claims Have Been Filed Since Mid March
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | May 28, 2020
Total initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) over the last ten weeks crossed the 40 million mark. Although weekly initial claims are declining, the pace may only be plateauing. If UI claims remain in the millions for the next few weeks, it may signal that relaxed restrictions alone aren’t enough to staunch the flow of unemployed Americans.
Initial claims for UI fell to 2.1 million on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to the latest figures from the Department of Labor for the week ending May 23, 2020. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, 1.9 million initial claims were filed last week, bringing their total up to 37 million, just barely exceeding the total non-seasonally adjusted claims filed during the entire Great Recession. Claims for the week ending May 16 were revised up to 2.45 million from 2.44 million.
Claims for the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program—expanding UI benefits to previously ineligible workers—fell to 1.2 million. PUA claims for the week ending May 16 were revised down substantially from 2.23 million to 1.25 million, following a data entry error for Massachusetts in last week's report.
While simply adding PUA and UI claims together may overcount claimants, it is notable that steadier PUA claims are slowing down the fall in total initial claims, a concerning sign that the decline in UI claims alone may mask broader economic dislocation. Surprisingly, only 32 states have implemented and currently report PUA claims to the Department of Labor, a decline from last week when 35 states reported PUA claims. As more states begin to report on PUA, PUA claims may continue to rise in coming weeks.
This week's report finalizes the claims data for the reference period for the May jobs report, to be released on June 5. The steady drumbeat of additional UI claims over the last few weeks suggests that the May report will show the unemployment rate jumping into the high teens or low twenties.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.
Claims for the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program—expanding UI benefits to previously ineligible workers—fell to 1.2 million. PUA claims for the week ending May 16 were revised down substantially from 2.23 million to 1.25 million, following a data entry error for Massachusetts in last week's report.
While simply adding PUA and UI claims together may overcount claimants, it is notable that steadier PUA claims are slowing down the fall in total initial claims, a concerning sign that the decline in UI claims alone may mask broader economic dislocation. Surprisingly, only 32 states have implemented and currently report PUA claims to the Department of Labor, a decline from last week when 35 states reported PUA claims. As more states begin to report on PUA, PUA claims may continue to rise in coming weeks.
This week's report finalizes the claims data for the reference period for the May jobs report, to be released on June 5. The steady drumbeat of additional UI claims over the last few weeks suggests that the May report will show the unemployment rate jumping into the high teens or low twenties.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
Tags:BenefitsUnemployment
